Re: chris ferguson challenge
It's impossible to calculate, there are so many possible different factors involved. It's like asking, "what are the odds that if I stay inside and play poker all day and rarely leave my house, that I'll catch the flu from one of the few people I do meet, and get really sick and die from it on an odd numbered Thursday between 1:42 PM and 2:13 PM?
All you have to know is that it's extremely unlikely.
I'll play with the numbers a bit though... suppose you have $400. According to the 5% buyin rule, how far would you have to fall to get down to $200?
The first loss would be $20 (380 left), then $19 (361), $18.05 (342.95), $17.15 (325.8), $16.29 (309.51), $15.48 (294.03), $14.70 (279.33), $13.97 (265.36), $13.27 (252.09), $12.60 (239.49), $11.97 (227.52), $11.38 (216.14), $10.81 (205.33), $10.27 (195.06).
So it looks like it would take a 13 1/2 buyin downswing. Hmm, I guess that's not nearly as impossible as I thought it was. Still pretty unlikely for a good player though, especially at the lower levels.
|