[vaughn345]

Calling or minraising are clearly the worst things you can do, it’s shove or fold.

Before doing the math I would have always folded here and somewhat hated it, but it actually looks like a shove to me:

Assumptions: UTG will call shove with their entire range, tags will fold all draws to a shove from us, SB is check-raising (or check-calling shove) with vulnerable made hand 1/3 of the time they hit and no one just called with AA or KK preflop (might be wrong assumption I have never played 2/4 before).

So individually tags behind crush us (90% favorite) each 1/8 times (hitting set with PP or 2 pair/combo draw/straight/set with suited connectors), UTG beats us 33% of the time (from alex’s range), and SB crushes us (90% favorite) 1/8 of the time

=> 100% * [(1-(0.9)*(1/8))^2*(1-(0.9)*(1/3)(1/8))] = .758% equity against non UTG players and 66% equity against UTG.
=> 50% equity overall.

Taking into account the fact that UTG is probably not calling a shove with their entire range, there is considerable dead money in the pot, and one of the TAGs might not have played their hand perfectly, doesn’t this have to be a shove?