Re: Pokerstars $1/2 Frustration
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Being the pedant I am I can’t help picking at a couple of points it the big article above.
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Being the pedant that I am, I can't help picking at your picking.
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Firstly, “Over the next 5000 hands the number of times that player is dealt pocket aces, when added to the previous 500 hands, will become much closer to matching the odds of 220 to 1, against”. This is incorrect. The previous 500 hands should not be added back; they are irrelevant.
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For purposes of the point he's making, it's fine. He's not doing a strict statistical analysis; in fact, he's making the same point you are.
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But his quote implies that your future hands (…the next 5000) will on average make up for the bad luck you had on earlier hands (….the previous 500). They will not. This is fundamental. The bad luck in the first 500 hands will only become less significant as the sample size increases.
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Second point, “If a player routinely folds A-Qo in middle position to a raise and re-raise by solid players that player should continue to do so.”. I agree, for a one-off event, but for meta-game purposes, I think you may want to be seen to be participating occasionally.
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Meta-game is almost worthless in the games we're talking about. A few weeks back I was playing 4/8 at the Bellagio, seriously went 75 minutes without doing anything but blinding and folding, and still got 5 cold-callers when I raised AA preflop; three of them saw the river with me, one of whom runner-runnered his flush ftw with two cards < 7 on an ace-high flop (yep...the set of aces that I waited an hour and a quarter for got beaten by 63s...lucky the drinks were free).
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Good point well made. A practical example that I can happily salute.
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