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Old 11-09-2007, 11:01 AM
GeeBeeQED GeeBeeQED is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 109
Default Re: should i pop him here?

Your in a tourny, you have a set. I'm moving in on the turn here. If your beat, your beat. Check calling every time you don't have the stone cold nuts gets you no information and smaller pots. Besides it is very weak. What if the guy hits his small PP on the river? If he's got a bigger 5 or 33 in the hole he's probably going to double up on me here. You play these types of hands to hit these types of flops. If you get soft and lay down or check check check after calling with a hand like this then I have to ask why your playing it at all?

I put his range in order of likelyhood as 44,66,77,88,99,33,56,34, two middling big cards. Only a real donk has A5,K5... etc here. Of course it's always more likely early in a Tourny. But, 3 of the 5's are out. You have to heavily discount that he has a 5 here. It's a difficult hand to read.

Calling the turn or raising $1000-1500 leaves this joker odds to draw if he's semi bluffing. Almost any kind of draw or 2 pair crushes you if he hits. I try to end the hand on the turn, stack up some very nice chips or go home.

Lets don't forget early in a tourny there are lots of dead money players. It's always possible he's holding a large pp he decided to get tricky with and slow play. Terrible move in my view given the action but certainly not uncommon. This is more common with 60+ players and if this guy fits that catagory and is otherwise unknown I'd move the big PP up the list quite a bit. If he's that bad he might double you up here with aa or kk.

The read is almost impossible but I just can't give him a 5 here. 33 or 99 are the only hands that are consistant with play AND bad for me. Majority of these other hands I'm happy for him to have.

Dave
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