[kimchi]

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For the record, Mr. Now engages in trading trends-- not "counter" trends.

Genuine trading in genuine trends is not supported by strongly held beliefs about the validity of predictions.

The prediction idea leads to other rigid beliefs about specific future price movement, such as "the dollar has to bottom soon", "gold is overbought and must fall", etc.

The dollar might bottom.

The dollar might rise, fall, or move sideways.

ArturiusX might think Mr. Now's trading philosophy sucks, or doesn't suck, etc.

None of this matters since the dollar and ArturiusX behave as they intend to behave now, regardless of any predictions about them.

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I wasn't talking to you, but what you're saying makes zero sense.

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I think Mr.Now is articulating one of the most fundamental psychological aspects of trading. It doesn't matter why a market is doing what it is doing. It only matters that it is doing it and for you to be on the correct side of the trade (remembering there are 3 positions to take in a trade).

Using language such as 'the market should do this...or the price has to do that' just reaffirms your biases about the market direction based on your beliefs.

You can't force the market because it will do whatever it wants regardless of your position, the percieved fundamentals, or whether or not the next losing trade will force you to throw yourself under a subway train.

This is the primary reason why I try my best to avoid watching and reading financial press. Thing is, I find it entertaining, but acting on information I get from Barrons, CNBC, WSJ, Fishead or Shoe is -EV for me.