Re: This is how you burninate a level:
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It can get much worse.
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Yeah, many players vastly underestimate the effects of variance and the potential to run bad.
Just a simple example. Let's say you normally run 2ptbb/100.
You have an 8 buy-in downswing.
Given your 2ptbb/100 rate, it will take you on average 20K hands to get back to zero. So your break-even stretch is going to be 20K plus the length of the downswing. So depending on the abruptness of the downswing, you're probably looking at something between a 25K to 40K break-even stretch.
And what if your recovery is slow? Say you only run 1ptbb/100 while recovering? Then you're looking at 40K hands to get back to break even. So now suddenly were talking about a 45K to 60K break even stretch.
And that's for just an 8 buy-in downswing. 8 buy-ins is harsh, but I don't think particularly spectacular or unusual at all. So up to a 60K break even stretch is not going to be all that rare.
Everybody thinks, "It can't happen to me" but it can get much worse than even that.
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