Thread: NL 50 TPTK OOP
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Old 11-08-2007, 11:15 PM
Albert Moulton Albert Moulton is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
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Default Re: NL 50 TPTK OOP

Usually fold preflop to the reraise to $8.

[ QUOTE ]
WTF? Fold AKs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

Your absolute position is bad.
Your relative position is bad.
You don't have a read on button, and you will be OOP in what will probably be a 3-way pot on the flop with a huge pot and only Ace-high 2/3s of the time, or top pair 1/3 of the time.

If you don't want to fold because you think BTN is squeezing with weak hands, then reraise or push preflop.

But some info on BTN's reraising range would be nice before deciding to come over the top of him. Without any information at all in a FR game, it's better to assume that BTN is tight with his reraising range until you have reason to believe otherwise.

As played at the flop, you are OOP with TPTK and no redraws to a flush or straight.

SPR is 1.67.

Range and Equity vs a "tight" BTN (I'm assuming "tight" because you have no reads):

You have 56% equity vs QQ-AA/AK.
You have 35% equity vs KK-AA/AK.
And 10% equity vs KK/AA.

Range and equity vs "loose" CO:

You have 92% equity vs QQ-44,AQs-AJs.

12.5% equity vs 35s or any 3x hand (which CO might show up with, but probably won't).

You have 0.1% vs quads, but that is also highly unlikely.

How you you maximize your winnings and minimize your loses vs these ranges?

Well, betting out with a $20 bet on the flop folds out everything you beat, but it will also force you to call a push from BTN since your equity vs KK-AA/AK is 35% and the pot odds will be ~2:1. You'll be hoping for a chop or a miracle, however.

So, checking the flop to make it appear as if you've missed is probably good. You can't fold, however, because the pot is so big. So, you'd be looking to CRAI.

Once the turn comes with another club, you should bet out and call a push. You might get a worse hand, like JJ-QQ, to call your bet. But you still end up paying off KK/AA because the pot is just so big relative to what you have left in your stack.

As played, check/call the turn and check/call the river probably pays off AA and KK the least possible amounts.

But you are suffering from your bad position and lack of reads. The fact that he might have 6 combinations of AK and only 4 combinations of KK/AA mean that you really can't get away give the pot size. And the fact that he acts last means that you can't exercise much in the way of pot control. That is why playing AKs OOP in this particular hand is a bad idea. As the OP played out, it looks like he flopped kings full, checked the flop, then value bet the turn and river. But you really had no way to get away due to the pot size and lack of reads once you called preflop.

To summarize, I think you should have reraised or folded preflop. Without a read, I'd usually fold and give up my $2 because my position is bad and I don't have enough info about BTNs range to reraise.
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