Re: I dare to ask a preflop question
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So many more combinations of AK than AA/KK + dead money = easy cap.
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The second part of your equation makes me wonder. Would you auto-cap QQ in a 4-handed pot with the same action? 3-handed? Heads up?
The hand count isn't *that* favorable. 16-12 is about about 57-43, and I'm a huge dog (with bad RIO flopping an overpair) against AA/KK and a small favorite against AK. Considering preflop equity against those hands HU,
20% against 12 hands = 2.4 wins
50% against 16 hands = 8 wins
So 10.4 wins out of 28 hands is hovering near 37% equity. The extra players in the pot still have *some* equity, and when I have the best hand, they're usually taking it from me and my 8 wins. So in a 3-handed pot it seems like I'm coming close to break-even and so this does not become an auto-cap anymore. Does this analysis seem correct?
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