Re: 60$ - JJ vs unknown
Let me give this a try. I like the check-fold on the turn. Assuming the other player is not stupid, let's say his possible holdings after the flop are:
AA/KK/AK (unlikely, since the normal play we be a re-raise)
Other Pair (very possible)
AQ, AJ, ATs (a little loose, but reasonable)
KQ, KJs, QJs (again, a little loose, but not unheard of)
The flop bet is pretty much mandatory. Based on the fact that he called your bet, let's narrow his holdings on the turn to these.
Hands you are ahead of:
AQ, AJ, ATs, QJs
Hands you are behind:
33, 99, TT, QQ, KK, AA, AK, KQ, KJs
If you bet out, the only hands that you have beaten that would call again would be QJs and ATs, IMHO, unless AJ or AQ is stilling on the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. And I don't see any of the hands that you are behind calling the flop then laying down to a half-pot sized bet on the turn. You can overbet to get a couple of them out (maybe), but you are likely dumping your tournament right there.
I see this as a bad place to get your chips into the pot and would cut your losses.
FYI, I'm just getting used to doing hand analysis like this and if I'm doing something dumb please let me know.
Adios!
|