Judgements like these are usually *not* what good trades are made of. You are predicting, in effect telling Market what to do, instead of listening to what Market is saying via price and volume.
Examples:
" When supermodels get quoted in the news,
the market has to be at an extreme and due for a reversal."
"The dollar
is oversold."
"interest rate cuts that the market
has already priced in. "
"When the market doesn't get the cuts,
the dollar should rally hard."
Most of the time, I notice that Market does not ever have to get in sync with my trading. No, Mr. Now always has to get in sync with what Market is saying, now.
What you seem to be doing here is kind of telling Market what to do. Plus, now that you have a) taken a position and b) gone public with it (even under a pseudonym) you probably find yourself defending your analysis, "filtering in" what agrees, and "filtering out" what does not.
Be careful.
You might want to sell all your positions and take a fresh look at what Market might actually be saying now.
With no position to defend, no ax to grind, you might get a less filtered view of what Market actually says.
You can always put those positions back on after you complete the cognitive exercise.
.
.
Price and volume often foreshadow "the news". Trend followers, sensitive to Market messaging in price and volume, often:
1. Establish small positions early based on these messages;
2. Establish these positions without knowing "why" price and volume are sending the message;
3. Add to these positions when Market delivers confirming messages;
4. Stop buying, and hold, for the strongest segment of the move;
5. Listen and notice when the trend is weakening, and start scaling out.
Adept Trend followers often receive pleasant "surprises" from "news".
Trend followers with excellent listening skills might be able to notice lots of trends, like the dollar-down trend, relatively early in the move.
Clearly hearing Market speak is mostly an exercise in
Empathy