Re: (razz) Tournament hand - fold 5th?
I should fold 3rd? That's insane.
How did I see when I saw the 4? like seeing a river. After he bet 5th he had 1bb left. I'm sorry, but this is all about odds.
If he has the absolute nightmare hand for me, like the worst possible hand that he could have, period, how am I doing? I'll lose 2/3 times.
So, 2/3 times I lose an extra 2bb. 1/3 times I gain the whole pot, about 6.8bb. I won't be in good shape if I lose, but I'm treading water and I need the chips. Yes, yes the chips I win are worth less than the ones I lose. But also there is a definite value in knocking out another player, since we're down to 12.
But this is actually the *worst case*. And far more commonly I'm looking at a coinflip, and once there's this much in the pot I flip every single time. If it's a coinflip, he's basically saying, here's your money back, now lets flip for 2bb plus a little extra dead money, and if I lose, I'm out of the tournament.
Also obviously I reserve the right to fold 6th, and he has no such luxury, really. So calling here I'm really only gambling 1bb some of the time, some of the time on 6th I'm gambling 1 more.
The outcome of this hand is immaterial to the question at hand. But I will say that, even given his actual hand I made the correct call on 5th.
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