Re: YARPT
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Here's what I don't understand, maybe you can help. Someone mentioned that the price listed was basically the percentage chance of the event happening, at least in the opinion of the market participants.
But it seems like the price is just determined by the marginal pairs, right? Whatever you are willing to bid at and buy at is fair game, right? So the price on each individual candidate should not depend on the other candidates.
But then you add up the prices of the candidates, and damned if they don't total exactly 100 (well, 99.8, but to within roundoff in the individual numbers).
Is that a coincidence, or is this the market working better than even I would have believed?
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
Edit to add that the same is true of the Democratic nomination, although the total is a bit more off, around 97.
But the total for the election itself is again almost dead on 100 (~99).
Not sure I understand how the prices are all set independently yet they can all so nearly add up to 100, unless the market is FREAKING AWESOME, which I know it is, but come on. WTF?
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Wow, good observation. I was arguing with a friend of mine about why this is a reliable indicator a while back, and I never even thought to look at it that way. Good stuff.
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