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Old 11-07-2007, 04:14 PM
Pokey Pokey is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
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Default Re: Nut flush, ugly river.

I hate the preflop action. You can't play fit-or-fold OOP against an aggressive opponent, especially when you're this short-handed. Your choices are simple -- three-bet or fold. If you're not confident enough to play this postflop then let it go and move on; there's no shame in folding a drawing hand to a raise when you're likely to be heads-up and out of position, (especially when your opponent is aggressive). Alternatively, you can three-bet big and hope to take it down immediately or on the flop, knowing that you're basically just bluffing a bluffer. Sure, your hand might be best even if you don't improve, but that showdown is a LONG ways away, and you're not likely to win there if you don't hit.

Personally, I'd play this to the bone and reraise preflop, bombing any flop as well. LAGs usually let it go at that point unless they've improved.

As played, the flop action looks pretty good to me, though you should realize that you are raising to win immediately. If BB's bet had been larger then a large-but-not-all-in checkraise would probably be a mistake. You're basically hoping that BB is weak and folds immediately. If he doesn't, then your bet disguises your true hand if you hit well on the turn, but beyond that it doesn't help much. Your best bet is for BB to fold, and when he doesn't you should be disappointed.

The turn is a good card and your bet looks fine to me. You want action and you want your river push to be an easy crying call for any weaker hands, and this bet gets that job done.

The river sucks for you. Given that your opponent is loose and aggressive leading is probably a mistake, since he'll fold any hand that you beat and he'll push with any hand that beats you (and an occasional bluff that you'll hate calling). Checking induces bluffs, and that's a much better option for you, because when you check-and-call you're far more likely to be ahead than when you bet-and-get-called. Given how small this bet was I'm thinking he's either VERY weak, VERY strong and hoping for a raise, or VERY strong and hoping to extract a bit of extra cash. In any case, raising is suicide and folding is a huge mistake (considering the pot odds). Make your crying call, expect to lose, and occasionally take down a pot that is so big that it justifies your other losses.
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