more on the flop call
To be honest Mig, when I first wrote that post, I thought you had flopped a flush draw and never considered folding. I didn't think about the numbers.
After the fact, I realized that the decent equity was due to this double-backdoor-overcard draw, and was forced to examine this assertion again, keeping in mind the idea that we will may often face a turn bet. After further reflection, it still seems like a call (I learned something here, since I would normally fold this). Here's why:
If we factor in the turn bet in advance, then we are looking at 7.5 : 3 odds to call and get to the river. That is, we are 2.5 : 1 underdogs, being offered 3 : 1 from the pot.
Now, we're going to get away on the turn from a lot of cards that give us little hope of winning, so our true odds are not this bad. Further, if villain really does ALWAYS bet every hand in his range twice, then I don't mind giving up a little bit here to encourage him... we should crush him by constantly trapping and check-raising the turn mercilessly. In other words, it's not a call that can be taken advantage of in a game theory sense. Folding though, likely leaves us the ones who are going to be exploited by a relentless bettor.
I'm hand waving here to say that it's there... I'm not exactly sure how to do the math to compare the reverse implied odds of catching hands like a 6, vs implied odds of catching a Q or making a flush on the river. Intuitively though, I think it's a call, though close, and even if it's slightly losing, it's a call you should make from a game theory point of view to avoid being run over by players on steal raises. If the metagame result is that players stop trying to bluff you, you come out way ahead (side note: I've experienced this in short handed games at lower stakes, and when it happens, you virtually can't lose).
my 2 cents.
Eric
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