Re: 5/10 turn shove?
This play is pretty borderline I'd say, but good for metagame. Running the math:
Pot Size = 705
Left to Shove = 574
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls = 920*2 = 1840
Equity when called:
Hand 0: 05.742% { AdQc }
Hand 1: 94.258% { AcAs, AhAs, KcKd, KcKs, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, AKs, KJs+, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQh, KdQs, KhQs }
The range is sort of weighted to reflect that he 4bets AA/KK some of the time PF, only calls QQ/JJ 50% of the time, only AKs included since he 4bets AK so often PF, and folds KQo PF half the time. This doesn't matter so much for our equity, which will always be around 5.7%, but rather for what percentage of his range is calling the turn shove.
Let X = P(Fold)
Shove EV(0) = 705X + (1-X)(1840*0.057-574)
X = 40%
His calling range represents 2.1% of total combos. That means he needs to make it to the turn with:
2.1%/(1 - 40%) = 3.5% of hands. So if he's peeling 99-QQ (folding QQ/JJ half the time) as well as the rare flush draw, this brings his range to 3.6% and makes the shove barely profitable on its own merits.
It definitely is very close, but we need to bluff in this spot some % of the time to balance out our strong hands, so I like shoving this a significant portion of the time.
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