[calcbandit]

I think the real interesting question is given the above survey results, is the probability of A being true greater than 30%?

If the survey results were that all groups A-G homogeneously responded 30% yes and 70% no, the probability of Y being true would pretty much have to be set at 30%, barring any other information on the topic.

So, do we have a case here where Y is more likely to be true specifically because less people believe it than the above, even distribution example?