Omaha theory: Folding the nuts on the flop.
Say we're at a .5/1 game PLO
5 people see the flop all with 100$ in front of them.
You hold 5c 6c Ah Qh
Flop: 3s 4s 7d
Pot : 5$
You pot it for 5$ and everyone folds except a very solid TAG who repots it to 30$. Is a fold here +EV?
Against nuts with a flush draw, ev = .30
Against nuts with a straight redraw ev = .39
Against nuts with Strt+F draw ev = .22
Against nuts with set ev = .31
Against nuts with set + F draw ev = .18
etc...
Basically your EV is around .3 against most of the redraw hands which imo is not enough to make a call with the nuts on the flop a +EV play. If you do make the call, you'll have to put in extra money on the turn if a safe card hits or you can fold it if a scare card comes.
I think if the 7c was changed to a 7h instead giving you a backdoor flush draw, a call would be neutral EV.
Are there any other scenarios where you fold the nut straight on the flop given different stack sizes, a larger pot caused by preflop raising, or more players giving action on the flop?
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