[Taraz]

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I was actually going to make a very similar post to yours David.

I think Y is very likely to be true in most cases. Basically, unless you could prove some kind of psychosis correlated with intelligence related to the problem at hand, I would think Y is a HUGE percent to be true.

Showing that the belief in question depends on a large amount of information, some of which is extremely difficult to comprehend would make me think that Y is even more likely to be true.

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It wouldn't have to be psychosis, just a systematic difference that only affects smart people. Since smart people normally self-select in many ways, this isn't too hard to imagine. I would guess that 30% of the smartest people don't think that dressing nicely with matching clothes and grooming is important. Since smart people probably value ideas more than appearance, this is not a far stretch. In this case would you assume that being careless with your appearance is the correct way to go?

Obviously this is highly dependent on what Y actually is. If Y happens to be a complex concept that requires a lot of thought I would probably agree with you.