[stinkypete]

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statistically speaking, you maximize your expectation by trying to call a little too much in these spots. i might write more about this at some point. i don't think its been addressed in any published articles or books.

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having thought this through, i realize this isn't necessarily true. it depends on assumptions about the distribution of the error in your ability to evaluate the odds you need to call. and there's no reason why that distribution has to be such that calling more often than you think you should is correct - but i suspect that is the case more often than not for good players. whether or not that hypothesis is correct is irrelevant though. knowing what your tendencies are is important. if you can analyze which way your "gut instincts" are skewed, you can improve your winrate. i might make some mathy post later this week if i'm feelin it.