Re: Spin Off Logic Problem From Genius-Religion Debate
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As long as Y is the kind of thing you score points for getting right in an IQ test.
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This is far from clear. Notice that if you only surveyed very smart people you would have no reason to bet Y was correct.
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Can you extrapolate this Trend into hypothetical super IQ's? If that's what you want to do I think it's up to you to make the case. Extrapolating trends can be a tricky business. You are using the phrase "probably true" so your arguement needs to make some kind of sense of the term "probably" in this context. I don't think it makes sense to talk about believing Y to be "probably true" as a pig in a poke, where you don't even know what Y is. If you have more statistics or even guesses about statistics for how such trends extrapolate you might believe the Trend for Y falls into the statistics of extrapolated Trends for other Y's. Even then I think you need to see what Y is to judge whether it is similiar in nature to the Y's with extrapolated Trends that work in other statistics.
PairTheBoard
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