[Kos13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact that he is getting fat and is increasingly unable to play third base effectively would mean that he could very well accept an arbitration-year buyout plus an extension through his FA years. I expect a five-year deal to be the norm (2+3), but I doubt he would sign anything over that without substantial risk to the team.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would assume that a 2+3 deal would be the last thing he'd ever want to do. Why would he accept what is essentially a three year deal that puts him back on the market heading into his 30th birthday? If he's worried about getting fat and moving to first base, he's going to want a 2+7 type deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 2+3 deal puts him on the market at age 30 which is around the peak of most ballplayer's careers. You would argue that he is entering his decline phase, and you'd be right. However, unlike you, Ned Colletti and Brian Sabean seem to have never heard of the term "decline phase," so why wouldn't he get a seven-year deal at age 30? A-Rod seems to be garnering plenty of interest, and he's 32.

[/ QUOTE ]

But all that does is take the money he's going to make during his age 31-34 seasons and put it on the next Colletti/Bavasi/Bowden contract. Instead, signing a 2+7 deal gives him roughly the same yearly salary, but it locks him up immediately and guarantees the money. He'd be crazy to pass up a 2+7 offer from his new team because he wants to hit the market at age 30...his yearly salaries are going to be about the same no matter when he signs the contract.