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Old 11-06-2007, 06:15 PM
tolbiny tolbiny is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 7,347
Default Re: Why will the dollar rally?

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first off, what does exporting w/ relative ease have anything to do w/ that? if it is a tanker of say american produced liquid or a box of american sheeps wool it still only depends on pricing considerations.

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Elasticity.

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it also would depend on the degree to which the exporting firm has already hedged away currency exposure.

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Why would this matter to the prices they decide to charge? It would certainly matter to their overall bottom line, but if the can increase both their total sales and gain from the exchange rate they will likely do so regardless of their hedging.

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now as to your first one, there needs to also be some qualifiers there in terms of export prices. the main one being the tradeoff between three things a) the elasticity of demand for the good/service being exported b) the market share of the exporter/overall market size and c) the margin on the good/service being exported.

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I was being overly simplistic, but its doubtful that a company would find it necessary to cut their prices by the full amount of the lost currency exchange to approach their optimal profit lines. So the 500E TV won't suddenly bring in an extra 100$ (from the example) but its unlikely that they will drop their prices all the way to 420E (or whatever the correct % drop would be to fully compensate for the new exchange rate).
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