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Old 11-06-2007, 03:44 PM
Acevader Acevader is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 614
Default Re: Post Flop Play - Passive Better Than Aggressive...discuss

I agree with that; there is defo merit in light 3-betting then c-betting at FR.

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How can calling with less than top pair be standard when they are betting their money off?

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I didn't say it was standard. I'll make up a contrived example of what I'm thinking:

100bb effective, hero is in HJ with AdJs and raises first in. A middle of the road player calls (he knows basics but has weaknesses and plays too many hands).

The flop is Ks,Jh,7c and hero makes a standard continuation bet which villain calls.

Turn is a 6c and what is our play.

It's possibly villain has a weaker jack, two-pair+, Q10, Kx, etc. If we bet again he may call on the draw which will put us in a really tough spot on the river whether he hits it or not since we'll probably move into check-fold mode. He'll fold all hands we beat and maybe (if we are really lucky a few hands we don't (weak-kicker kings). If he was floating he'll fold.

The problem is that maintaining an aggressive line and betting again here doesn't seem to maximize our expectation. However, by going weak we allow him to bet off weaker hands (and believe me they are stupid enough to bet QJ and the likes here) and thus we get value from those weaker hands. The problem is that we also put ourselves in a reverse implied odds situation. An ace could be more harm than good and a jack might just ensure we get stacked. Crucially if villain does have a better hand he can take us to value town on the two remaining bets if we go into check-call mode.

So what is our play here? How do we maximize. It seems to me that betting the turn doesn't really achieve that but similarly check-calling one bet and potentially two is high variance and possible no better in the long run.

For a real example I had the exact sort of scenario against Narena (smart poker) today.

Multi-limp and I'm in BB with K10 and check. Flop K,J,rag and I fire pot. Narena calls. Turn J. A potential trouble card so I go into check-call. Narena bets about half pot and I call. River 10 and I check, he bets just over half (from memory) and I call and pay off AJ. This is the risk - he maximized because I went into check-call.
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