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Old 11-06-2007, 02:57 PM
Ajahn Ajahn is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 416
Default Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/5 - 500k buyin - Spoilers expected)

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About the Doyle vs. Jamie hand :

I think vs. a tough opponent Doyle's fold was correct, but against Jamie it was wrong. The reason is that Jamie seems to play the river absolutely horribly. He never value bets thin and he often bluffs tiny. Against a good player Doyle would have to call the turn and then face another big river bet, which would be a very evil decision. Like for example if it was Antonius who raised the turn I would crap my pants.

Against Jaime, you can just fold the river to a huge bet, and perhaps call a tiny one. Hell if he checks the river you can probably value bet him because he has a lower flush there a lot.

It's definitely a very thin spot, but the fact that you have an edge on Jamie on the river makes it pretty ++EV to call IMHO.

Doyle may have also been just taking it easy to make sure he didn't lose a big pot and tilt himself.

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Don't we expect Jamie to make a flopbet with a 2nd nut or nut fd on the flop in lp?

I don't see how Doyle can't just lose 250 to 275K in that hand. Seems a reasonable price for his hand + the action. And like cbloom mentioned, Gold isn't one to make big river bets. Esp if Doyle makes a quick turn call that would be a tell of huuuge strength.

We do have to counter in Jamie's humongous tells though. His speech === I HAS IT LOL.


But whatever it is, Jamie's flop and turnplay are extremely horrible. His fundamentals are so shoddy, I doubt he can beat ssnl online for a decent rate.
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