[Hyperrrprank]

Yeah, my first calc showed a marginal marginal +EV, but as I noted it was disregarding those times where you made a hand and still lost. I was trying to show that this was a call with either a very slim advantage or a LARGE disadvantage. You need everything to go properly to pull half a small bet off the table.

Once you factor in times (like you demonstrate here) where you'll now need to call a turn bet (agreed this is standard now that you've picked up a gutshot), or where you make a second best hand, this is a big loser.