Re: NL25: JJ in 3bet pot
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With those stats, I somehow doubt that the villain is behind here, and if he isn't, you're dead in the water. If he isn't stealing, all you beat out of his range is 99, TT, AKs, AQs. If he has 88, QQ, KK, AA, you're crushed. This really comes down to his steal %. If he steals infrequently, I like a fold here.
TRWIII
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Yeah, but if we take your range as given, then we get:
Board: 2c 8c 5s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.828% 49.94% 00.88% 160200 2835.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 49.172% 48.29% 00.88% 154890 2835.00 { 88+, AQs+, AKo }
Plus, isn't there some likelihood that we could exclude AA/KK here, as someone with those stats would quite frequently 4-bet pre-flop, fearing a suck-out (that's me!!!)
Without AA/KK, we get:
Board: 2c 8c 5s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.695% 61.56% 01.14% 153576 2835.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 37.305% 36.17% 01.14% 90234 2835.00 { QQ-88, AQs+, AKo }
Just my $0.02
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