Thread: TPGK Minraised
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Old 11-06-2007, 11:14 AM
cubase cubase is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: 100nl
Posts: 328
Default Re: TPGK Minraised

AQ, KQ would be beating you but I think you see a raise in general from those hands, but KQ is still in his range. I think AQ is out.

QT and Q9s might be in his range. The only other hands that he could have that are beating you are 22 and 77. Q2 and Q7 seem unlikely unless he is a station that plays any face-card with a suited counterpart.

You just sat down and raised from the button, so he could be "testing" you with a mid PP or QT, Q9.

Let's stove, shall we?

Board: 2c Qc 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.853% 26.17% 04.69% 18651 3341.00 { TT-22, KQs, Q9s+, KQo, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 69.147% 64.46% 04.69% 45947 3341.00 { QsJs }

So assume he'd raise you with any of the above hands to test you we look good. He might not raise you with the lowest PP's tho, so let's adjust...

Board: 2c Qc 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.537% 24.50% 08.04% 10188 3341.00 { TT-88, KQs, Q9s+, KQo, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 67.463% 59.43% 08.04% 24710 3341.00 { QsJs }

Still not looking terrible, if we assume he raises with that range.

The tricky part here is, is if we shove on him, his calling range will pretty much be sets and the few Q's that he could have. If we check and call his PSB on the turn, his range could be wider, but if he min-raises on a flush-draw we aren't happy about seeing it.

I don't know. Tricky spot...

So really, given that the play isn't clear, here is what comes to mind...

We've just sat down and I'm in my first orbit. Do I know the players at my table (excluding my villian?). If not, I have an opportunity to do interesting things with my image. Additionally, if I don't recognize anyone, they likely don't recognize me and so they are more likely to give me credit for a Q here, which means his min-raise could = lots of strength.

Due to my aggressiveness at the tables, I get min-raised with all sorts of holdings (draws, weak pairs, air, etc). You haven't established an image yet, so you can go ahead and give him credit for a big hand and fold and really nothing has occurred except that you have "c-bet and folded". To everyone else it will look like you were fooling around on the button, missed, and folded.

Or you can take an aggressive line. You can shove your stack in (you have outs if you need them). His calling range obviously narrows, but if he folds, you come out looking like an aggressive "don't f with me" player. If he calls you, you will undoubtedly be beat, but now you portray the image of an aggressive fish (see Brian Townshend video on CardRunners about making this type of play).

Everyone will start licking their chops about how you overplay your weak top-pair, and will start looking up your shoves with TP2K+ which is great when you flop two-pair+.

Since the answer isn't clear at all against this unknown (except with a tendency to fold since you likely have to face a PSB on the turn, and the turn could be a card you don't want to see A, K or club), instead of worrying about the EV of this hand, you could consider the EV of your image depending on the action you take.

Decide how you want to appear to the table and take the action that creates that image.

If all the chips get in and you were behind but suck out, use that image. If you lose, use that image. If he folds, be aware of that image, etc.

Not very helpful for the actual hand, but hopefully it provides another way to look at the hand other than straight-up hand EV.

Edit: Fixed a poor sentence structure, misspellings.
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