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Old 11-06-2007, 07:59 AM
matrix matrix is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: UK
Posts: 7,050
Default Re: combo draw, call down?

lets see villain 3bet you preflop and it's micro so we can narrow his range on this flop to OP's and maybe AK.

There is no way that flop hit him - and he's still betting.
See also the turn. After the turn bet we can put him on an overpair or a very rare bluff and not much else.

We gots 9 flush outs and 3 extra gs outs. And 50% of the time he has a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in his hand so lets make that 12.5 outs.

2/4 times rule says that on the turn with one card to hit we have two times # outs = % chance of winning.

So we are ~25% which is ~3/1.

If we flat call the $3 the pot is paying a little over 3/1 so assuming we have $3+ in our stack call and see the river. We can fold everytime our draw misses and push everytime it hits and villain has bet so little it's +EV.

If we have less than $3 remaining here it's a simple fold as we don't get enough odds to call.

Please post stack sizes in your posted hands as they are important.
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