[ QUOTE ]
OK, review for anyone still following, this is looking at the hand from the perspective of the big stack, who is SB in the original hand.
ICM Nash Calculator Results for 200/400/50
minus: $EV given up in the current hand at 100/200
plus: $EV gained later when BB (suzzer's, but not really suzzer's since suzzer is probably too good to fall for it, but most people will) folds tighter than he should in a later hand.
If an opponent thinks you're capable of folding some hands, thus not pushing any two even in spots where we know it's way +$EV to do so, he will call too tight. When the blinds go up, hands like KTs will become correct calls for the middle stack. These hands are also hands most players will incorrectly fold unless they think they're being bullied and have some notion to "take a stand." What's happening is pushing earlier has caused our opponents to play in a way that's worse for us, albeit accidentally. Folding an any-two-cards push is a gambit that is best done only with the very bottom of the starting hand range.
curtains: I'm probably being too extreme in the application, but there's nothing wrong with my logic. I keep forgetting about the 100/200/25 round coming after the 100/200 round. Like I said earlier, if the next level is 120/240, then 150/300, there's absolutely no point in doing this. I'm folding the bottom 5-10% of hands from the SB in the exact situation presented. I wouldn't fold any at 100/200/25.
[/ QUOTE ]
wtf? Why would there be so many better spots later. I really just don't understand. This guy is about to bust real soon. The EV we are gaining by pushing here is just way too big to pass up against anything but the craziest of opponents.
I mean why can't the shortstack simply bust on the very next hand? Honestly I just think you are way overthinking a concept that has almost no practical application. I remember when I played SNG'S actively there were always people who wanted to avoid +EV spots like this because of some stuff that might happen 10-15 hands later, and I always told them they were completely out of their minds. Similar situations were repeated as nausem, and everyone tried to be super fancy and give up ridiculously huge edges in a single hand that in isolation were equal to 50-150% of their overall win rate. That opinion hasn't changed.
The amount of EV you gain pushing 32o here should be tremendous and folding it against a typical player should be a horrible blunder that costs you a lot of money and drastically impacts your overall EV. This situation isn't even close IMO, there may be some that are slightly closer but it's almost never correct to pass such an edge.