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Old 11-06-2007, 02:07 AM
MrHoobris MrHoobris is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 170
Default Re: I fold trips top kicker

Tough spot given your read. My gut says its a call, and so does my math, although I did have to make a few assumptions. (If somebody can confirm I did it right that would be good, because I don't often do these types of calcs.)

Pot odds: (327+347):347 = 1.94:1, so you need 34.0% equity against his range to call.

Combos we are beaten by:
AQs 1
QQ 3 - Doesn't peel the flop all the time, so discounted to 1.5.
Total: 2.5

Combos we chop:
AK 3

Combos we beat:
AJs 1 - rarely calls PF, discounted to 0.25

So, counting the chop outs as half, our odds are:
2.53/2 + 0.25) = 2.5:1.75 --> 1.43:1

Based on this combinatorical analysis we have 41.1% equity, meaning the fold is a relatively significant mistake, especially if there is any chance he is bluffing.

Note: If he always peels QQ on the flop, or ever calls AQo preflop, then calling becomes a significant error. This to me seems unlikely.
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