[samsonh]

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What age do you expect elite baseball to decline?

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Really? Is it not commonly accepted that most players begin to decline after the age of 30? Obviously there are outliers and that has to be taken into account, but I think the general consensus is 30+.

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess that you know very, very little about baseball.


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Love to here the explanation for that comment and why those stats are wrong.

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Because I strongly disagree with your assertion of it being a general consensus that <u>elite</u> baseball players begin to decline after age 30.

In fact, what usually sets them apart is their longevity and production much after others usually decline.

Bonds is no exception to the rule, he's just another in a long line of HOF'ers who've done it.

For one, the last 5 position players voted into the HOF have all seen an increase in their HR rate after age 35, when comparing age's 31-34 to ages 35-39.

Also, more fun with stats as copied from a previous thread a few months back:

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<u>Hypothesis:</u> You just don't start hitting homeruns at a higher rate after age 35...it's unprecedented..

<u>Methodology:</u> We're going to compare a players At-bats per HR rate over two periods...age 31-34 and age 35-39 and see if it increased or decreased.

<u>Findings:</u>

INCREASED HR Rate after age 35:
Hank Aaron, HOF
Barry Bonds
Ted Williams, HOF
Cal Ripken, HOF
Tony Gwynn, HOF
Ken Griffey Jr.
Ryne Sandberg, HOF
Carlton Fisk, HOF
Ozzie FREAKING Smith, HOF
Paul Molitor, HOF
Wade Boggs, HOF

Decreased HR rate after age 35:
Palmeiro (tested positive for steroid use)
Caminiti (admitted steroid use)
Canseco (admitted steroid use)

<u>Summary</u>:
- In the 'increased' group, we have Bonds, Griffey, and NINE Hall of Famers.
- In the 'decreased' group, we have three confirmed steroid users.

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Let's keep going:

<u>Hypothesis:</u> But even with the previous findings, only Bonds has gotten WAYYY better after age 35, his increase in HR rate is unprecedented.

<u>Methodology:</u> We're going to compare the 5 seasons before and after age 35 between Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds, adjusting for the respective league average for each period.

<u>Findings:</u>
From age 30-34: Hank's rate was 2.5 times the entire league.
From age 35-39: Hank's rate was 3.75 times the entire league.

From age 30-34: Bond's rate was 2.5 times the entire league.
From age 35-39: Bond's rate was 3.75 times the entire league.

<u>Summary:</u>
Far from 'unprecedented'...more like 'eerily similar'.

Newsflash- The best of the best...the most far reaching outlier of special player does special things, and it's not 'proof' of anything more than them being a special player.

The stats merely show Bonds is among the best.
No more, no less.

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The only problem I have with your reasoning here is this: you constantly harp about Hank admitting his use of 'greenies' and then you trot him out for this example. You can't have it both ways here. He is either dirty as you often claim or he is clean and the precedent for Bonds.