Re: Why will the dollar rally?
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yea but my bet isn't for a ton. gold futures would bring me a ton of long exposure along w/ my hedge.
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It appears I wasn't specific enough. OK, buy December $60 call options for 68 cents each on NEM (in lots of 100). $68 per contract plus commission of about $20, IIRC you bet $100, only buy 1 so you will have less than $90 invested. These expire on Dec 21st 2007. If gold goes anywhere near $1000 they should be worth around $6.50 at a minimum (times the 100 shares they represent) you then make an easy guaranteed profit, and the most you can lose is your initial investment which will then be reimnbursed by winning the bet.
Jimbo
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how well do options on NEM track the value of gold? i'm assuming pretty highly.
thats a good idea actually then since i could just buy the calls in a very close to actual exposure and hedge my bet. (the overall bet was for more than $100) so that is a good idea.
i have to think about how strongly i feel about the bet overall and see if/how much i want to hedge.
thanks for the idea though, its a good one.
Barron
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