[mntndrew]

Thanks all for the interesting comments.

Hyper, nice post, but... aren't you showing the call as +EV in your first example? +.6 is +.6. If I'm reading it correctly, you're saying I'll showdown a winner for 26 SB 10% of the time (this is 4.5 extra BB on the big streets rather than the 3 you mentioned in the text, which I think may be closer to accurate against this lineup; I also think this is closer to 20% under the assumption of approximately 5 effective outs); have it capped 10% of the time costing me 4 SB (it's actually worse, if I'm assuming that one of them has a set, I'll still have to see the river if I turn a straight or flush draw, so it'll cost me 6 SB a fair amount of the time); and 80% of the time will c/f the turn at a cost of the two SB for the flop call (a little less than half the deck improves my hand enough that I'll usually have to peel, so again, this is actually a little worse).

FWIW, I think the raiser's range is quite tight given the dry flop and his style of play. I think he has AQ-KQ, maybe some smaller Q's, or 88 or 55. He basically never has two pair here.

Against this range, if we say we discount QT-QJ by half, we have 36 combos against which my two pair/trip outs are live (but susceptible to re-draws) against 4 where I'm relying on my backdoors.

Anyway, I guess I'm looser than I thought given the comments. I look to my left and see the MP player ready to call, I make a loose call counting close to 6 outs and getting likely 8:1, and 6 players go to the turn for two bets.

Flop [8 SB]: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Turn [9.5 BB]: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4 checks, HJ bets, BN, SB, Hero, MP1 call. MP2 folds.

River [13.5 BB]: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, Hero bets...

standard?