Re: live 6/12, 87s from BB
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I agree, in that case you're in pretty rough shape. But how often are you going to get capped? How often are you even going to get 3-bet? I don't know if we really have a good way of deciding that.
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You're exactly right here, in that we don't really have a good way of telling when this is going to get 3-bet and capped.
Drawing the conclusion that this should lean us towards calling is completely backwards though. The possibility of getting raised again (and closely linked to that the possibility we're drawing very thin) pushes us towards a fold. It doesn't much matter if we sometimes get lucky and no one raises behind us, since we stand to make this play over and over again in a career our expectation is significantly lowered even if there's only a small chance of paying 4 bets.
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