[Gugel]

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So, 49 times you win 10M, and 1 time you lose life.

0 = 49(10M) + 1(-X)

X = $490,000,000.

If you value your life at more than $490M, it's a -EV gamble. Personally, I thought for a while if I value my life at more than 490M$. Furthermore I think the varience in this game is too high for me to be comfortable, even if I value my life at less than that, and I walk away.

Same situation, with 5000 #s, and 100K in suitcase, is less varience but still not good enough for me IMO. So I guess I value my life higher than that. If you make the #s 10x (i.e. make required value life to breakeven around $5B) I might reconsider).

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I often think about life's problems in terms of EV, I don't think it applies itself particularly well in this scenario.

You win $10M 49 times and lose your life 1 time ($490M Sklansky bucks). The EV of this situation is equal to winning $10 billion 1 time, and losing your life 19 times (~$500M Sklansky bucks).

While someone might consider $10M if they have only a 2% chance of dying, it would be idiotic to consider $10B for a 95% chance of dying (even though they are technically the same EV)