Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
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Looks like Sagarin predictor has Florida 14ish better than So. Carolina at a neutral.
I don't want to pull a tlt, but South Carolina has been much more competitive than expected with Florida each of the last 2 seasons, and now the overall talent is as close as ever. You know this is the game Spurrier wants more than any other. The game is at South Carolina. The Gamecocks finally have their offense running on all cylinders after the failed Chris Smelley experiment (which I really never understood - I think Spurrier let his ego get in the way). This is not the same offense that managed a meager 6 at home against Vandy (who has a better defense than UF btw). Florida's defense is as bad as their offense is good, especially the secondary. Florida is gonna have to score a ton of points to cover 7ish (although they easily could). South Carolina has a good pass defense but is very soft against the run - Tebow at less than 100% plays into this well - Florida has virtually no north-south running game with the RB's.
I expect to be playing SC here - and if it's 7.5 or more it'll be a max play.
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I'm a Florida alumnus, and I pretty much completely agree with you. I thought our defense would be bad at the beginning of the year but pretty solid by the end. Unfortunately our secondary hasn't improved at all, and our D Line (which was a relative strength at the beginning of the year) has been so decimated with injuries that it is worse than it was in September. It got so bad we took a true freshman backup OL and a week after switching him to the DL gave him a start against Vandy.
I think I'll have to lay off this game. (Even though earlier in the year I took Kentuky +7, so I'm not above taking perceived (and ALMOST realized) value against my own team.)
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