[jeffnc]

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Flushes come at least 50% of the time. They either do, or they don't.

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That is kind of a standard gambling fallacy - if there are 2 outcomes, then the probability of each occurring is 50%. It's kind of obvious it's not always true - gamblers recognize that a sports team can be a huge favorite. But when they are gambling on something for which they have little information, then they get clueless. For example, a prize is behind Door #1 or Door #2, almost everyone will jump to the conclusion that it's a 50/50 choice, when really they have no basis at all for assuming that.

I remember one $1/2 NL player who said JT was his favorite hand, and he always raises with it. He was getting short-stacked (surprise!) and went all in. He winced when someone called him - he assumed he was a big underdog until his opponent turned over AK, when he sighed relief and said "Oh good, I thought I was dominated - but it's a coin flip." I guess either he was gonna hit his cards or the other guy was, so it was a "coin flip", right? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]