[Micturition Man]

[ QUOTE ]
You think the 8 upcard will find a hand to play 45% of the time?

I do. An 8 up-card is stronger in any-any than it is in eight-or-better because of its ambiguity about direction (hi or lo). In 3-handed any-any, an 8 in the door is second in power only to an ace.


[/ QUOTE ]

I actually doubt that you will get called/raised 45% of the time here.

IIRC from when I made some calculations for razz distributions, the median low hand like J7 in the hole.

You think villain is playing back with J78?

It's true villain will play some high hands like 22-AA, roll-ups, and 3 flushes with 2 low cards, but he'll also fold a lot of razz hands lower than J78.

Just off the cuff I would guess a solid opponent is going to fold ~60% of the time here.

(This is why when I first got into razz I started some long contentious threads about stealing/restealing on 3rd... it appears that most people play very suboptimally in this regard.)

Anyway back to 4th, I am seriously not understanding the controversy here. I don't see how folding can be an option. We're in good shape here, what's the problem?

Actually even if we brick 4th and villain catches low, I'm still not sure it's correct to fold on balance (check twodimes if you don't believe me, I was surprised too). But anyway that's the worst case scenario.

The raise/call question is separate.

Raising is kinda nice against a smart-solid player who will make laydowns on 5th/6th if he thinks he's drawing dead for low. It's also kind of bad to the extent that it causes villain to correctly put us on a flush draw.