[mickeyg13]

So I've been trying lately to develop some software to simulate baseball games. However, I've run into an issue that I can't decide how to resolve. In case you weren't aware, Voros McCracken of Baseball Prospectus fame has put together some decent arguments that pitchers have little, if any, ability to prevent base hits on balls hit within the field of play (excluding home runs). He consequently feels they should be judged on their "three true outcomes," namely home runs allowed, walks allowed, and strikeouts. This study really confused some of the stat heads for a while. Later on Tom Tippett (and perhaps others) came out with some results to the contrary. I can't make up my mind where I stand on the subject.

As it pertains to my program, it would be easier to use McCracken's philosophy, but I worry that that would be overly simplifying things. If I don't use it though, I feel I will have a lot of sample size issues with my inputs as there is a lot of noise to be dealt with. Any thoughts on the best way to resolve this?