Re: Do I have to push here?
Some quick, hopefully semi-accurate math..
You need to win > 42% of the time to profit.
You have 31.7% equity vs made flushes.
You have 34.6% equity vs sets.
You have 85.6% equity vs flush draw + pair hands like KQ.
55, 66 - total 6 combos
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Qx - 3 combos
Suited connectors, don't know which ones he limp with, but worth only 1 combo each, let's say 6 of them.
So, sets 40%, connectors 40%, KQ 20%.
.4*.317 + .4*.346 + .2*.856* = 43.6% equity
He may not call with KQ every time, so that hurts our equity. Add in the chance he has some unaccounted for worse hands. These two probably balance each other. I think a push is break even or marginal +EV. Push and gamble.
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