[Poshua]

No, you're still -EV. This looks +EV because you're looking only at the part of the play after a point is established on your Come/Don't Come bets. If you replace each Come/Don't Come bet upon resolution, you'll make significantly more bets on Don't Come than Come, because the Don't bets will resolve faster. Once a point is established, Don't wins more often than it loses, so it might seem like you're +EV.

Unfortunately, the flip side of this is that Don't Come bets lose more often than they win on the come out. If you're making more bets on Don't Come than Come, you're going to lose on the come-out significantly more often you win; this will offset your greater wins once a point is established.

More broadly, think of it this way: both the Come and the Don't Come bets are, themselves, -EV. The bets you make don't interact with each other; betting Come doesn't make your Don't Come bet any more or less likely to pay off. So, how can combining two -EV bets make you +EV?