Re: Swings in NLCASH
What doesn't make sense ?
Your clever tricks do not impress me .
There will be no more discussion in this thread on my part after this .
If you're desperate for an answer you could have pm'ed me or even asked one of the experts in the probability forum .
Tnixon already posted his side of the argument (in the probability forum) and was told that he was wrong from one of the most highly respected statisticians in this forum .
Jason1990's solution gives you the probability that you will achieve a downswing of size x commencing after time t .
This is very different from dropping x buy-ins commencing from t=0 . In other words , Jason's solution determines the probability that you have a downswing of b big blinds commencing from some t for t>=0 . This means you can have a downswing of size b after you've already accumulated some positive amount to your bankroll .
Op was interested in the likelihood of dropping x buy-ins in a typical cash game . The risk of ruin calculations can help determine the likelihood of such an even occurring .
For a player with a win-rate of 8ptbb/100 hands and a s.d of 60ptbb/100 hands , your risk of dropping 10 buy-ins (100 big blinds) should be :
e^(-500*2*8)/(60^2) ~ 10.83% which is fairly high and so 10 buy-ins should NOT be recommended .
Watch what happens if we increase our bankroll to 1000 big bets or 2000 big blinds .
e^(-1000*2*8/60^2) ~ 1.17% .
So this means that if we have 20 buy-ins for a cash game with the aforementioned win-rate and standard deviation , then the chance of ever going bust is about 1% ; big difference from playing with only 10 buy-ins .
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