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Old 11-03-2007, 01:14 AM
JSH06 JSH06 is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Winona, MN
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Default Re: 6x$119 overpair - non-scary board

I think it's pretty close. As for the turn slowing him down, there's really not that many scare cards that can come on the turn and slow him down. There's only 2 kinds left in the deck. There's 4 aces. A 9 MIGHT slow him down.

As far as him having AQ, most players in his spot would re-shove AQ preflop, so I'm not really putting much stock in that being in his range.

You're right that if he leads the turn he'll pretty much be committed. You're also right that your hand isn't vulnerable. This is the upside to calling.

However, simply taking this pot down now gives you almost twice as many chips as shorty. You're also less likely to get screwed and bubble if you shove now. Sometimes taking the safe route and not getting tricky is better on the bubble.

That said, I think it's so close that it doesn't even matter. Shoving and calling are both fine. I don't particularly like one or the other better.

Ok, actually I think I like calling better the more I think about it. Even if an ace comes I think it's less likely that it hit his hand. People normally re-raises a lot of Ax hands with his stack. There's the chance that if an ace comes on the turn he'll bluff you off the best hand, but he could just as easily be scared by an ace. An ace is only going to come on the turn about 6-8% of the time anyway, so it's not really that big of a worry.

Ok I just rambled about nothing but I guess I like calling better but wouldn't fault anyone for shoving.
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