[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you really overestimate how often we get a bet out of AJ on the river. he shouldn't be value-bluffing us because he should know we'll call, and he shouldn't c/c because he should know that we don't have any hands in our range to bluff with.

[/ QUOTE ]
i think a good assumption for how often he c/c river ui with AJ is 100%

[ QUOTE ]
- most importantly though, while incorporating of dealing with the cost of bluffs on the turn, you do not incorporate a similar cost of dealing with bluffs on the river if we check (not necessarily against KJ but against other parts of his range). the point is: in both lines his bluffs always carry a cost.

[/ QUOTE ]
you fold a river J K or A and assume that he hand reads just a little and he should ~never be bluffing a worse hand on one of these cards.

[ QUOTE ]
3. betting into a better hand isn't too bad at all. you usually lose nothing and occasionally lose a chance for your 2 outs if he c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]
Qx gets c/red very often and he rarely has Tx, so betting into a better hand often gives up the chance at 2-outing him - not just occassionally

[ QUOTE ]
a lot of marginal weak hands (44,66,A7,A5s) will call a bet now but you won't get a bet out of them on the river when certain cards fall, OR you will be too scared to bet yourself, OR they will bluff you out on certain cards.

[/ QUOTE ]
again read my comment above about J/K/A rivers. if he hand reads at all your hand looks just like AK/AJ and that is way too many combos to attempt bluffing if he does actually fold 44/66/A7/A5s (which again is not many combos on its own). they also basically all call river bets on blanks.


honestly when i first posted in this thread i just wanted you to show some rough math (i wasn't convinced myself). then stellarwind posted and got me thinking about it more, and i think he's right. too bad i'm too lazy to really run a bunch of numbers.