[BRDSR]

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The whole point of my post was that I would like to gather data to confirm/contradict that gut feeling before betting...

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Ask and you shall receive...first, thanks for the tip on finding the stat.

The following is compiled from 72 regular season Lakers games last season. It omits their second game of the season (no data for some reason) and 9 overtime games.

Gut instinct about the difference was correct. The average difference between the final score point differential and the largest lead of the game is 6.31. This does not factor in which team won and which team had the largest lead of the game (as this bet wouldn't).

However, I don't think this is particularly instructive. In general, the larger the final point differential, the smaller the largest lead of the game. In games that were decided by less than 10 points, the difference between the final score point differential and the largest lead was 7.65. In those same games, the largest lead exceeded 19 4 of 40 times (10%).

Finally, in games decided by between 8 and 11 points, the average difference between the final score point differential and the largest lead was 7.29. The largest lead exceeded 19 in 4 of 20 games (20%).

Would run other stats if anyone's interested or would share the raw data with anyone, just PM me. Bottom line is that if you think the spread is accurate, this is probably a good prop bet. My only concern is that the Lakers were probably a slightly better team last year and I don't know how that should affect the data.

May get around to running the same numbers on Phoenix before the game starts.