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Old 11-02-2007, 02:16 PM
Nostrawho? Nostrawho? is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 48
Default Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

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Sports Insights latest numbers show SD getting 81% of the bets which makes the line move totally logical in which case SD is a wong teaser play. Assuming the line holds of course.

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The fact that the line opened at -7 and appears to have moved based on the action is exactly why I do not like this teaser play. It seems they increased from -7 to -7.5 to balance the books, etc. based on overwhelming action on SD. Perhaps I'm completely mistaken here, but it seems like I'm teasing a -7.5 line that should really be at -7.

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Logistx, I think this is all based on an individual's subjective analysis on each game. By that I mean if your projection favored SD by 7.5 or more, you would consider them a wongable play regardless of opening line. The opposite applies here too where even if the line moved to 7.5 and became "wongable" and you thought the true line stood closer to the dog, you wouldn't wong regardless because there is more value in taking +7.5 than would be to wong down to -1.5 with another play having to be made even if the other play were wongable based on your subjective analysis. I am agreeing with you essentially and I know you've thought of this but its honestly just a subjective topic as far as wongable teasers go. A wong to one man may not be a wong to the next, based on perspective of each.
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