[cubase]

Grunch.

With this particular post, you can show the villian checking on the river and follow it with "Hero...?". By showing that the villian called the river, you are going to probably get skewed responses since we can now infer more about his hand. That said, let's move on.

First let's look at the stats. 15\10\1.8. 10% raising = pocket pairs and broadway cards. 15% adds in suited connectors and/or maybe some suited aces. We don't know what he calls raises with OOP, but we can assume all PP's, probably his suited broadways, and AQ, AJ, etc. At this level, 3-bets usually only happen with JJ+, and AK.

With two overcards, a gutshot, and a flush draw, this board is all over that range except for underpairs.

Given that he calls the flop, you can immediately put him on AQ, AJ, possibly AT, A9s-Axs (depending on how many suited aces he calls with).

This player plays fairly tight, so OOP I'm going to credit mostly with bigger suited aces, broadways, and PP's.

When he checks, you should sometimes check and sometimes bet depending on his propensity for folding on the turn. This is where your reads come into play. Does he call two bets for a draw, or just the flop bet? Does he call down with Ax, or raise at some point? Does he fold to extreme turn pressure (as in, an all in bet?) without at least two pair?

One of the things I've been working on when designing bluffs is ensuring that I know my player well enough to make the bluff. So one of the questions you might ask yourself instead of, "Is this a good/bad bluff" is this question: "Do I know my player well enough to construct a bluff?"

If this player pitches underpairs on this board to a flop bet, then from the turn forward you know he has at least an ace or a flush draw.

If this player never draws for a gutshot, then you know you can put him specifically on an Ax or a flushdraw. If this is the case and you know he will let go of AQ and flush draws to a big turn bet (or even a shove), then you might have a workable bluff. The tricky part is, could he have a set or two pair?

Would he check the set or two pair to you on the turn?

Let me give you an example of constructing a bluff...

A solid TAG raises UTG. I call on the button with whatever, and the SB (a weak-tight player) calls.

The flop comes K T 2 two to the flush.

SB checks. UTG checks. In a multi-way pot, I know that the TAG would have led out with any hand that was strong here (AA, AK, KQ, KJs, KK, TT, 22). So I know he missed with his AQ, AJ, or doesn't want to c-bet his underpair on this board. If he was going to play a flush draw, he would lead out (he doesn't check call for draws OOP).

The SB pretty much exclusively calls with PP's from the blinds, but can check-raise when he hits a set. He would have re-raised however with KK, leaving only TT and 22 for his set possibilities.

Based on my reads, the TAG isn't going to play this pot and the SB is very unlikely to play this board (he never holds AK here and he tend to weak-donk when he hits top pair). He would call one bet with a flush draw though, but never a turn bet.

I fire out a 3/4 pot bet. SB calls, and as predicted the TAG folds.

If the SB did peel with an underpair, he will definitely go away with my turn bet, and if he has a flush draw he also will give up on the turn (again based on my notes).

All I have to do is dodge his set or flush on the turn and I can fire again.

The turn is a blank, I fire he folds.

In order to construct my bluff, however, I needed a lot of information about both of my villians and how they play certain hands in certain positions against X opponents.

So given that you have given us very little information on your opponent's tendencies, continuing to bet on the turn without additional information is probably a leak.

Check behind and take the free card. If your opponent is on a draw, your K-high has showdown value and note taking value (what???). If your opp checks the river, you check as well, probably take down the pot and get notes on how your villian played the hand which will be useful for constructing bluffs later.