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Old 11-02-2007, 04:57 AM
Mitke Mitke is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: On a learning curve...
Posts: 308
Default Re: River decision after strange play by opponent

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By the way, I thought that my turn raise was reasonable as I considered it unlikely that villain would have AA-QQ as he did not cap pf and he then c/c the flop.

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Your turn raise is perfectly good IMO. Value and protection.

I wouldn't fold to the 3-bet either in this big pot. 88 is the most likely hand he has to beat you that would 3-bet this turn. I agree he'd have played AA-QQ faster preflop and flop. JJ or even QQ are not totally out of the question but rare.

55 and 22 are quite unlikely here based on preflop. AQ-AT diamonds are possible but not very likely either.

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I can understand Villain's line preflop and flop.

His goal on the turn must be to either extract the most value or win the pot - both are fine. Winning 6.25BB pot vs. two opponents on the turn is a good result IMO.

Betting out protects against Hero taking a free card. A good line I think. Villain probably cannot count on Hero betting overcards on this dry board.

I'm really struggling to reason why he 3-bet.

Ok, pot is big but Hero has now showed strength by raising his turn donk on a dry board. This should signal a strong hand, when combined with preflop and flop line it should read as an overpair TT+ or rarely AK-AT diamonds.

Vs. an extremely weak-tight Hero there might be some fold equity in turn 3bet - river lead but not much. He's story just isn't consistent enough to get folds in this big pot.

Should Villain have folded to Hero's turn raise then getting 10.25:2? Probably. What do you think?
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