Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
OK, let's try again then.
[ QUOTE ]
I actually find the alternative interesting. I brought it up in another thread and I didn't feel that it was adequately answered:
The SD game opened at -7 and it appeared that it moved to -7.5 simply to balance the lines/increase the edge of the books. SD appears to be BSPish this week. In that case, I'm leaning toward the game being accurately handicapped at -7 rather than -7.5. Wonging the -7.5 seems bad to me. The fact that road favs are often bet up may account for why they historically have been the worst performing wong subset
[/ QUOTE ]
Now if the part in bold is correct then I would agree with you that this is probably not a good teaser selection. You would be giving up an extra 1/2 point on the least profitable subset(road favorites)for BS teasers. But...
What leads you to believe the line moved to 7.5 for any reason other than action on San Diego? Sports Insights latest numbers show SD getting 81% of the bets which makes the line move totally logical in which case SD is a wong teaser play. Assuming the line holds of course.
|