[TNixon]

2 simple questions.

#1: Do you believe jason's formula is valid for computing the value it is attempting to compute?

#2: Do you believe the value jason's formula is attempting to compute is the probability of having a downswing of size X in Y hands?

In the interest of not wasting anybody's time, a simple yes or no will suffice. If your answer is no in either case, feel free to explain, but it is not necessary.